Chris Huhne and Shale Gas

I am neither for, nor against, the exploitation of Britain’s shale gas.  I haven’t made up my mind yet, but I think the issue is more complicated than the way it was put by Chris Huhne in The Guardian this week.

There’s the question of whether shale gas is a lower carbon fuel than coal.  There have been two studies by Cornell university which contradicted each other, one showing that shale gas had  higher greenhouse gas emissions than coal, the other that the emissions were half.

This matters.  Firstly,  there’s James Hanson’s argument that to prevent dangerous climate change, we cannot afford to take all the fossil fuels out of the ground. Therefore it makes sense to leave those with the highest carbon content, which means leaving the unconventional oils and coal. So the difference between a carbon content higher than coal and one half of coal, is the difference between leaving it in the ground, and exploiting it.

The level of emissions also affects the viability of using CCS, that is carbon capture and sequestration. In his article Chris Huhne advocates the use of CCS with shale gas.  So far, pilot CCS projects such as the one at Sleipner  seem to be showing that CCS is possible but expensive.  It is only economically viable for fuel sources with relatively low CO2 content (at Sleipner the natural gas has 9.2%), and in combination with a carbon tax. So, if shale gas actually has higher emissions than coal, then it is probably not viable, even with CCS.

Chris Huhne’s article did not mention the question of water use and possible pollution of aquifers.  Possibly he accepts the reassurances of the energy industry on this issue. Personally, I don’t know who to believe. On the one hand, I accept that the campaign against shale gas in North America is characterised more by hyperbole than hard facts, but I’m equally skeptical about the statements from the energy industry.

What concerns me most is the way we seem to be rushing to exploit our shale gas reserves.  It’s not as if the gas is going anywhere, and getting this decision wrong could have serious environmental effects for the UK. I’d like to see a slower and more considered approach; preferably a public enquiry to report on the viability of exploiting the reserves, economic, environmental and otherwise.

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Why you are descended from Edward III

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Alberta Election

The biggest losers were the pollsters, who got it totally wrong

Contrary to their predictions, the Tories got a safe majority, and Wildrose only got 17 seats, although that makes them the official opposition.

One of the possible reasons for the pollsters cock-up is interesting. They rely on “robocalls”.  Personally, as soon as I hear a recorded message, I hang up without waiting to hear whether they are offering me credit, cut price double glazing, or want to know which way I’ll vote, and apparently I’m not unusual.  But, not Wildrose voters apparently. I wonder why.  Do you think it might have something to do with IQ?

When I lived in Staffordshire, I used to look forward to reading the correspondence from Mrs Biddulph, the local press spokewoman for UKIP, in the local press.  The Biddulph  Weltanschauung was great fun. She apparently believed that Christianity started in England, and that membership of the EU meant we were threatened by ungodly countries like Italy. I’ve really missed Mrs Biddulph since I moved here. Now I have great hopes of Wildrose to provide me with entertainment during my last two years in Canada.  Without a majority, they are likely to be an undisciplined group of wackos, given the opportunity to voice their obsessions in prime time. Even though the “caucasian advantage” and the “gays will burn in hell — fact” candidates didn’t get elected,  I’ve heard Wildrose  leader Danielle Smith is not only a climate change sceptic, she doesn’t believe smoking causes cancer, so it’s an opposition led by the female equivalent of Christopher Brooker.

Amended 5.48 pm — eliminated typo.

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Weak Tea

Albertans vote tomorrow in a Provincial election.  The Progressive Conservatives have governed Alberta for the last 41 years., but it is predicted that tomorrow they will be replaced by the Wildrose Alliance Party, Alberta’s home-grown Tea-party-lite (weak tea).  Wildrose’s candidates include two clergymen, one of whom is rabidly homophobe. who thinks that gays will suffer for all eternity in a lake of fire, and another who talks about the “Caucasian advantage”  (n.b.  The next time a Canadian boasts about how free of racism Canada is, just say “Ron Leech”).

Both right-wing parties are heavily funded by the energy industry.  Neither mentions the environmental problems posed by the tar-sands in their manifesto. Danielle Smith, the Wildrose leader, is an overt climate change sceptic.  The PC’s leader Alison Redford isn’t (overt).  Whichever party wins, Alberta will remain Planet Exxon-Mobil.

What Wildrose represents above all, is a return to government in the style of Ralph Klein, who led the PC from 1992 to 2006. The right split dates back to Klein’s successor Ed Stelmach’s decision to increase the royalties charged on the oil patch.  The fury this aroused was not abated by the fact that the oil patch continues to thrive and expand. Klein was criticized for his failure to build up the Heritage Fund, created by premier Ralph Lougheed, to receive a proportion of Alberta’s non-renewable resource royalties. Instead Klein preferred to send Albertans a proportion of the oil royalties as a cheque in the post, and Wildrose are promising to do the same.

The opposition parties are nowhere in the polls. The NDP have 10%, the Liberals 9%, and the Alberta Party (liberals in disguise)  have 2%. There is also the Evergreen Party, formerly Alberta’s Green Party, which doesn’t get a mention; I think it has 2 candidates. Of their manifestos I prefer the Liberals’, who would impose a carbon tax.

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The proposal to increase minimum income levels for family-route visas for non EU nationals

I’ve sent this letter to my MP:

Dear Ms Bradley,

Although I live in Alberta, I am a registered overseas voter in the
Staffordshire Moorlands.

I'm writing to you to express my concern about the proposal to increase
minimum income levels for family-route visas for non EU nationals, to £25,700
for couples without children. and £49,000 if you have children.

I and my husband are not affected by the proposal.  My husband was born in
Canada, but has dual nationality, and anyway our income is above the limit
proposed.  But as a result of taking part in "ex-pat" forums, I am aware of
the hardship this is going to cause. Two groups in particular will be
affected.  The first are young couples with children.  This is one example
from an ex-pat forum:

"I am FURIOUS about this. I am a British citizen with two British children
(dual nationals with US, like me), and I'm basically being told that I am
not allowed to bring my family to live in my homeland because I have not
been lucky enough to secure a profitable career while in the States (I'm a
journalist - used to work for the Telegraph - ha, the irony). My husband is
a "skilled worker" (paramedic) so I am hoping that will help when we try
and come back later this year, but I am really, really, really angry that
because the government hasn't been able to "deal" with its perceived
problem of an influx of Pakistani and Indian families I am now going to be
"punished". There is no godly way a paramedic and journalist are going to
earn GBP50K in the UK, we can't even earn $50K in the US. Sorry. Rant over."

The young woman who wrote that is typical of the type of young professional
who has taken the opportunity to work abroad, formed a family
while there, and now finds him or herself threatened with long-term exile
because she has an American or Canadian spouse. It is not just journalists,
but academics, nurses, teachers, and many others with skills the UK needs,
who will not be able to return to the land of their birth.

The second group are those, who having spent a portion of their working
lives abroad,  married there, and now wish to come back to the UK in retirement.
 Although the income requirement for childless couples is less onerous, it
is still well above the average income for retirees. There is a lot of
uncertainty among this group about the extent to which their assets will be
taken into account, and also future income, since many pensioner defer
taking some of their pension income for the first few years of retirement.

Please convey my concerns to the Home Secretary.  I hope that she will
reconsider the proposal.

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An orange is not a banana.

Like so many other Liberal-Democrats, I was dismayed by yesterday’s announcement to extend email snooping. I checked out the story on the BBC, Guardian, Daily Telegraph and the Independent before I was convinced it was not an April Fool’s joke.

I’m not comforted by Lynne Featherstone’s patronising email,  I’ll put it this way: If I am allergic to oranges, chocolate and bananas, I’m not going to eat an orange just because I’m told it is not a banana or a Cadbury’s flake.

So, being reassured by Lynne Featherstone that the proposed legislation does not set up a database (chocolate), or give access to the content of emails (banana) does nothing to placate me.  I don’t see why GCHQ should have access to any private communications data without being required to show cause.  I don’t agree with the powers that it already has under RIBA, to monitor communications without a warrant, and I don’t agree to them being extended.

I’m very troubled by this issue, because it leads me to question why I stay in the Liberal Democrats.  I care about social justice, but if that were all I’d be in the Labour Party.  However, I’ve always been distrustful of the authoritarianism of Labour, which came to the fore after 9/11. I’m a member of the Liberal Democrats because I trust it on civil liberties issues.  If I’m wrong about that, then what is the point?

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The War on Women School of Design

I’m spring cleaning this week, which is a cue for me to have a moan about the dated kitchen appliance design in N.Am. It is as if the industry went into stasis sometime in the nineteen- seventies, around the time the Women’s Movement started.

I have a fantasy that kitchen white goods are a field for a rear-guard action by misogynists.  They covertly took control of the industry, with the aim of ensuring that cleaning and maintaining kitchen machinery continues to take up as much time as possible. Yes, I know men clean kitchens too, but even today women do it more.

The War on Women School of Design probably award an annual prize for the white good with the most hard to clean surfaces. In the case of my kitchen exhaust (Br. oven hood) the number is 32.

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The Robocall Scandal.

The ruling Conservative Party of Canada is currently embroiled in an election scandal.

The background is the federal election of 2011, when Stephen Harper won an absolute majority for the first time. The election was a disaster for the Liberal Party which lost 43 seats, and an even bigger disaster for the Bloc Québécois which also lost 43 seats, leaving it with only 4.

It is now claimed that the Conservative victory was achieved by using illegal voter suppression tactics in at least 27 seats. The Conservative majority is 24 seats. Potential Liberal voters received “robocalls” directing them to the wrong polling station, or harassing calls that purported to be from Liberal canvassers, late at night, early in the morning, or in the case of Jewish voters, on the Sabbath. At least some of the calls have been traced to a call centre in Edmonton, the heart of Conservative Alberta, and which has been used by the Conservative Party in the past.

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Kanadischen Klimabomben

Austria was one of the countries which voted for implementation of the Fuel Quality Directive, whereas the UK only abstained.  If passed the FQD would effectively put an import  ban on Canadian tar sands oil into Europe.

The environment minister for Austria is Niki Berlakovich, of the Austrian People’s Party, which has a right of centre ideology. After the vote his spokesperson described the Canadian tar sands as kanadischen Klimabomben — “Canadian Climate-bombs”, and described oil sands and oil shale as the energy sources of yesterday.

This is not a party political issue.  It is purely to do with Britain and Europe reaching its emission reduction targets, and also with rightly condemning an industry which is dirty and unsustainable and should be closed down.  I’d like to see the British government condemn the tar sands industry in the same forthright terms as Berlakovich.

I’m relieved that Britain abstained rather than vote against implementation.  Now the vote goes to the Council of Ministers, and I very much hope that, at that point, Britain does the right thing.

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The Fuel Quality Directive (again)

I am simultaneously a resident of Alberta, home of the tar sands, and a member of Lewes Liberal Democrats.  This unique combination gives me a strong interest in the issue of the implementation of the EU Fuel Quality Directive, which should ban tar sands oil from entering Europe, and Norman Baker’s role, which numerous environmental groups have alleged, has been to secretly aid Canada in its attempts to prevent the ban.

In my opinion the campaign against Norman has been febrile and ill-informed, and I would also apply both of those adjectives to Damian Carrington’s reports in his Guardian blog.

I was particularly amused by Carrington’s grudging approval of the UK government’s donation to the Pembina Institute, which he described as an “anti-tar sands” organisation.  Pembina, based in Calgary, only calls for a moratorium on new tar-sands developments, not for the tar-sands exploitation to end. In fact, Pembina insists that the tar-sands can be made sustainable (against all the evidence).  Essentially it inhabits the same alternative reality as the Canadian and Albertan governments, in which you can have your cake and eat it, exploit tar-sands oil and combat climate change. I can understand why the UK might decide to give Pembina a donation rather than another environmental group.  Pembina’s stance means it  gets listened to occasionally, meaning it can influence issues such as environmental monitoring, whereas the other environmental groups are regarded with horror and contempt on a par with Al Qaeda; but describing Pembina as “anti tar-sands” is either ignorant or delusional.

But I digress.

Norman has answered the allegations against him on his website and in letters to the Guardian, and I am satisfied that there were no secret meetings and there is no conspiracy.  However, I still have some concerns about the UK’s position on the FQD implementation, and Norman’s position in particular.  Norman is critical of the methodology which accords a high rating to tar sands oil, but fails to take into account the high emissions of heavy conventional crudes, such as those from Nigeria, Angola or Venezuela. He states:

 I persuaded the British government to put to our EU partners a system whereby all fossil fuel sources were placed in either a high, medium or low band, with specific values being advocated as and when the detailed information became available. Under my scenario, such a value would be given to Canadian tar sands right away but within this banding arrangement that captured all other fossil fuel sources from day one.

Lush portray this policy as “attempting to kill this legislation by delaying it for years”. Yet my officials at the Department for Transport advise me that a banding system could be up and running within six months to a year. By contrast, if the EU fails to put a system in place now to cover all crudes, it is unlikely that the matter will be revisited for years, and all we will have is a specific value for one source that at the moment barely exists, as far as Europe is concerned.

My problem with Norman’s stance is as follows: T&E is an environmental organisation I trust. In its briefing on the FQD implementation it states that the methodology criticized by Norman, will only be in place until December 2015 at the latest, when it will be reviewed –

The proposals also include the possibility of allowing additional default values for higher GHG intensity conventional sources, once the data has been established and if it is proven to be scientifically warranted. Furthermore, the review will allow existing default values to be adjusted in line with the latest scientific and technical information.

Norman claims that the banding system he proposes would take just six months to put in place. thus saving just two and a half years on the 2015 review. I’m not convinced that is worth arguing for.  Even if little or no Canadian tar sands oil is imported into Europe, the ban, as T&E argue, will have an immediate effect on the perceived viability of tar sands exploitation, and discourage investment.

The environmental groups accuse the British government of conspiring with Canada to kick implementation of the FQD into the long grass. I don’t believe that, and nor do I think that it could do that even if it wanted to. At worst, I  think there may be some muddle in the government’s approach, as evidenced by the donation to the Pembina Institute, and influenced  by our close relationship with Canada, and the degree of investment in the tar-sands by British companies, including RBS, BP, and HSBC.

Nevertheless, I believe it would be better if the UK votes for implementation of the FQD now, and not be responsible for any further delay

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